A silly place filled with caffeine induced ramblings of this person named KarmaGirl....or something.
inspired by a WinCustomize.com thread
Published on May 21, 2004 By KarmaGirl In Current Events
On WinCustomize.com, there is a thread "thanking" the President for our gas prices. A lot of non-US people were commenting on how the US actually has cheap gas compared to most everywhere else.  (Which is mainly because we produce over 50% of our own gas and can refine the rest ourselves).  Gas prices seem absolutely crazy, but here is my response to their post: 

The gas problem is going to be a long term problem.

First, you can not blame Bush or the US government for gas prices.  Crude oil prices are set by OPEC.  They will raise prices just because they *think* a shortage may happen.  Unless the US wants to go to war with the world, we aren't about to over throw OPECs decisions.

Second, we keep having a higher demand.  More cars.  More driving.  Less fuel efficiency.  The EPA wants to make sure we have very clean air.  They make tighter and tighter restrictions on emissions every year on both cars and fuel refinery.  Funny thing is- the higher the emissions standards, the worse the gas mileage.  You need more fuel.

Third, refineries keep closing because they can meet emission standards.  The EPA has gone so insane that it is almost impossible to build a new refinery so companies just don't.  We have lost about 30% of our refineries in less than 20 year.  However, our demand keeps growing but our refineries can't keep up.  Europe's gas is quite expensive because of this.  They have to outsource almost all of their refining which costs a lot since all of them are already running at 99%.

Fourth, the people don't want more fuel efficient vehicles.  How many people do you know that drive a diesel car?  A Jetta TDI will get 50mpg (that is real life trial- I had one).  Diesel fuel is $1.79 per gallon here versus $2.09.  Doesn't take a math wiz to figure that one out.  How many hybrid Honda civics do you see on the road?  They are available, but they don't have the horsepower of a full gas engine.  They don't sell well.  These factors tell the car industry that we don't want alternative fuel so they aren't spending the money on research.

But, here is a bit of math for you to see that gas prices aren't as bad as people really think.  Yes, it costs more per year, but I think until it gets to $3.00 a gallon people can deal with it if they use a little common sense and quit over reacting.

Here is the scenario (which is real life because it's my car).  A Monte Carlo SS gets 28 miles per gallon.  It is driven 29,000 miles per year  (I will round that to 1035 gallons per year because I don't want to deal with decimals).  Here is what it costs per year to drive at different amounts (I will start with a gas price that we haven't had in years and end with one that could happen):
$1.35/gallon: $1397.25
$1.50/gallon: $1552.50
$1.79/gallon: $1852.65
$2.00/gallon: $2070.00
$2.10/gallon: $2173.50
$2.25/gallon: $2328.75
$2.50/gallon: $2587.50
$3.00/gallon: $3105.00

So, the difference in gas from a few years ago ($1.35) and now ($2.10) is $776.25 per year more.  Since the national average mileage per year is less than half of what I drive, that means that the average consumer is seeing an increase of less than $388 per year (at current prices).  In comparison, if you were to buy a fast food lunch 3 times a week at $3 more than it would cost you to pack a lunch, that would cost you $468.  Heck, even a $1.50 coffee 5 days a week costs $390.  Smoke?  The yearly average for that is $2,000 per year.

So, pack your lunch, make your own coffee, and quit smoking.  Buy a fuel efficient vehicle the next time you need a car, and don't sweat the gas prices.....yet.


Comments (Page 4)
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on May 27, 2004
Hmmmm. Several references to OPEC but not one (unless I missed it) to Venezuela. The US imports most of it's overseas oil from Venezuela, not OPEC. Everyone, including the press, likes to point fingers at OPEC but they only account for a fraction of the US oil supply. Couldn't be because US oil companies own large percentages of Venezuelan oil companies could it? Hmmmmmm.

I agree that Americans have always enjoyed lower fuel prices than the majority of the world. I believe that eventually our prices will be closer to what the rest of the world is paying. Unfortunately, these increasing fuel prices will trigger inflated prices in practically everything else.

Getting about time to get off the fossil fuel addiction and get that monkey off our backs for good. We have the technology to build clean, efficient, non-fossil fuel vehicles (except aircraft). Perhaps when oil prices finally get high enough corporations will see a profit to be made by producing these type engines.

Besides, do we REALLY need to go from 0 to 60 in a few seconds? REALLY?

I agree with David St Hubbins, right now bottled water is far more expensive than fuel. Something wrong with that if you ask me.
on May 27, 2004
Karmagirl - I guess if you come from the standpoint that the only thing a business should do is try to make more money regardless of "negative externalities" then I guess we really will never see anything eye to eye. I can't believe you make no acknowledgement that there are (or at the very least, have been) many loopholes for the auto industry to get around fuel efficiency standards....the "light truck" category specifically.

Okay fine, you have a trailer to haul and need a large vehicle to do so.....what could we estimate is the percentage of those who own SUVs, trucks, etc who actually use them for this purpose? I work at an elementary school and I can't tell you exactly how many soccer moms pull up to pick up their kids in explorers, yukons, excursions, etc....but it's a lot. I know a lot of people who have two large SUVs, even if you pull the boat back and forth from the cabin you don't need two do ya?

The bottom line- if people really cared about fuel efficiency, then they would be driving the fuel efficient cars that are available (and their are many). But, they don't. It's not the government's fault that we have such high demand on gas.



Fogive me....but Bullshit. People are stupid, Americans DO care about air quality, pollution, etc, when it affects them directly. But often they're not willing to pay for them. We want a lot of things we're not willing to pay for, or that we sacrifice for vanity, or that we won't do anything about until we're effectively motivated to do so. You still keep saying that no one is driving these vehicles .....give hybrids and other vehicles (such as the previously mentioned jetta diesel) a chance will ya, their life is still relatively new. I still won't accept your claim that people don't want them.
on May 27, 2004

Mason, Venezuela is the third-biggest exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

But, I do agree with: "Unfortunately, these increasing fuel prices will trigger inflated prices in practically everything else. "

The more it costs to get it to market, the more it will cost at market. 

on May 27, 2004
Karma...I stand corrected. You are right about that. I guess I was reacting to what I overheard a guy saying that basically equated OPEC with the Arab countries. Musta stuck in my mind lol
on May 27, 2004

Karmagirl - I guess if you come from the standpoint that the only thing a business should do is try to make more money regardless of "negative externalities" then I guess we really will never see anything eye to eye.

What good will putting yourself out of business do?  Funny thing about businesses- if they don't make money, they close.  I think you are over estimating the *profit* that car companies make.  There are quit a few engine manufacturers who are *losing* money right now.

give hybrids and other vehicles (such as the previously mentioned jetta diesel) a chance will ya, their life is still relatively new. I still won't accept your claim that people don't want them.

You are very misinformed if you think that this is all "new".  Do you know how long fuel efficient diesel cars have been around?  Longer than I have been alive.  There were *a lot* more of them before than there are now.  Do you know why?  Because they didn't sell well at all.  The diesel Jetta has been in the US for at least 10 years.  Diesels only make up 3% of VW sales.

People are stupid, Americans DO care about air quality, pollution, etc, when it affects them directly. But often they're not willing to pay for them. We want a lot of things we're not willing to pay for, or that we sacrifice for vanity, or that we won't do anything about until we're effectively motivated to do so

Let me get this right- people are stupid and should be led like sheep into doing the "right" thing by the government and corporations?  Hmmm.....my view of the human race is much lower now.....

BTW, I never said that car companies aren't developing new technologies to lower fuel consumption.  The problem is, and will be, to convince people to buy them.  It's pretty hard to sell people things that they don't want. 

Should all standard gas engines go away and be replaced by diesel or hybrids? (That would show those stupid people what they *should* be buying!)  Maybe people don't care about horse power, I don't know.  Or, what about the precious environment?  Do people not care about that?  Diesel currently pollutes more in the US than gas does (Europe has a different grade than we do).  I guess our refineries need another change......

How about this (sorry, I have to add reasoning once in awhile) instead of punishing those "stupid" Americans with their gas guzzlers, why isn't there a tax or other credit giving to cars that fit in the "fuel efficient" catagory.....or maybe the car companies can get a government grant to develop new models....oh, wait, they already did but haven't been able to get them to market......

on May 27, 2004

Karma...I stand corrected. You are right about that. I guess I was reacting to what I overheard a guy saying that basically equated OPEC with the Arab countries. Musta stuck in my mind lol

Actually, we import quite a lot of crude oil from Canada and Mexico.  45% of our oil comes from US sources.

on May 27, 2004
Ethanol is far from being a new fuel source. Ethanol s also not fuel efficient at all. Currently, gas can not have more than 10% ethanol (except for some California boutique gas, but their fuel systems are set up for emissions differently and can handle about 12% ethanol). Ethanol oxygenates regular gas and makes it burn cleaner. Ethanol on its own burns very hot and fast, so it is hard on the mechanical components of your car and also is not fuel efficient. (The ethanol blends are less fuel efficient than straight gas, too.)


Actually there is a small network of E85 stations throughout the country (gas with 85% ethanol). There's probably 100 stations, and one station in Minnesota claims 10,000 gallons in sales a month. Not huge in the scheme of the gasoline market, but a potential step in the right direction. Also, there talk of funding a bioethanol plant in the Federal Energy Bill which would create ethanol from renewable feedstocks. Bioethanol created from cellulose generates 8 to 10 times as much net energy as is required for its production. Moreover, it is estimated that one gallon of cellulosic ethanol can replace 30 gallons of imported oil equivalents. It is all still in baby stages, but it has potential.

think of how much money developing a new fuel will make you!



Ethanol?


There is also potential in a hydrogen economy...there are as many for it as against it. Depending on your politics it is either a great idea or a very costly, poorly articulated one. However, Bush has pledged $2 billion for hydrogen research to get the hydrogen economy started.

But back to the point of the article. Karma, like Nicky, I enjoy your math blogs. Very interesting.

on May 27, 2004

Yeah, the Ethanol burning cars have to made specifically for it.  We also don't have the resources currently to make it.  Another problem that we will face with Ethanol is the cost.  Poor crop production will sky rocket the price.  In the low quantities that are used now it's OK.  However, to get to the billions of gallons that we need, I'm not sure that we will be able to feed people and produce enough ethanol at the same time.

There are also natural gas cars, but they haven't worked out too well (too explosive in nature).

Crude oil is also used for more things than fuel for vehicles.  Propane is a combination of natural gas and crude oil byproducts.  We will still have that need no matter what.  Home heating sources would be a great place to invest some research, too.

on May 27, 2004
Let me get this right- people are stupid and should be led like sheep into doing the "right" thing by the government and corporations? Hmmm.....my view of the human race is much lower now.....



We are already led like sheep, why stop at car purchasing?

You are very misinformed if you think that this is all "new". Do you know how long fuel efficient diesel cars have been around? Longer than I have been alive. There were *a lot* more of them before than there are now. Do you know why? Because they didn't sell well at all. The diesel Jetta has been in the US for at least 10 years. Diesels only make up 3% of VW sales.


Soooo...how much of car manufacturers marketing budget is devoted to selling more fuel efficient vehicles?

I love your naive faith in our government I will never doubt their noble intentions again...or the possibility that consumers are targeted to purchase certain vehicles or that perhaps advertising creates wants. This debate is frustrating me too much and I see little point in continuing it since I have noticed my own words are getting immature and sloppy...I do apologize for this.
on May 27, 2004

I love your naive faith in our government I will never doubt their noble intentions again...or the possibility that consumers are targeted to purchase certain vehicles or that perhaps advertising creates wants. This debate is frustrating me too much and I see little point in continuing it since I have noticed my own words are getting immature and sloppy...I do apologize for this.

The problem is that I don't think you see enough of the inside knowledge behind the automotive industry, or the funding that the government has given alternate fuel research.  I don't have "naive faith" in anything. As I said previously: "My brother in law works in engineering at one of the big three.  My husband works in engineering emissions at a major diesel manufacturer.  I have first hand info on what is being done and how it was funded.  People should give the "government" a bit more credit."

It's not the job of the car companies to decide what people can buy.  It's also not the place for the government to tell companies what they can and can't sell.  The car companies are not doing anything illegal by providing cars on demand.  Just as it's not McDonald's place to tell you to quit eating so much, it's not the car industries place to tell you that you can't drive an SUV.

on May 27, 2004
That's it! From now on I travel by parasail-powered roller blades!
on May 27, 2004

Reply #56 By: MasonM - 5/27/2004 6:51:18 PM
That's it! From now on I travel by parasail-powered roller blades!

Maybe there is a market for that!  You might have a hard time pulling a trailer, though!

on May 27, 2004
Just a question of sail size and wind velocity
on May 28, 2004

Interestingly enough, Ford just announced at the NY auto show that they have an Escape hybrid that will be out this year.  It will get around 35 to 40 mpg.  The Escape is not very big, but maybe it will sell well enough (assuming they don't jack the price up way high) to put a hybrid in the larger SUV's and the focus.
http://www.fordvehicles.com/escapehybrid/home/index.asp?bhcp=1

Jeep will be bringing their diesel Jeep to the states within the next few years.

Don't see anything from GM, though

on May 28, 2004
Exactly right KarmaGirl............People are making a crisis out of something that isn't. As you noted, look at all the stupid and unhealthy things people waste money on. Look at the fat problem in America today. Look at smoking.

Also the free market will correct the fuel prices eventually.
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